Did COVID-19 Spark a Population Boom in Vermont?

There is much debate on the pandemic's impact on Vermont's aging demographics. While data is still trickling in to confirm the trend, most Vermonters feel that COVID-19 has driven out-of-staters to the Green Mountains en masse. The influx of new Vermonters has undoubtedly put pressure on our real estate market. Homes across the state, in the country, and our cities, have been gobbled up by people looking to adopt the Vermont way of life. Real estate agents in the north and south of the state echo anecdotes of buyers making an offer sight unseen.

Is it true?

We certainly think so! We wrote about the impact of out-of-state buyers on the Vermont real estate market back in August - you can read it here. That trend has certainly continued as the inventory of available homes for sale continues to shrink. 

As we wait for hard data to confirm the theory, we know that mail forwarding saw a significant increase in 2020, while school districts across the state saw a substantial increase in class sizes.

Why?

With the forced adoption of remote work across the country, previously tethered families and singles were free to find greener pastures. People who were once hesitant to leave their life in the city could now make a move with complete job security. Furthermore, according to a UVM report on the topic, most of those surveyed had some connection to Vermont, whether through family or friends. COVID-19 accelerated the decision to make a move. Those who didn't have any previous connection were driven by our access to the outdoors and Vermont's culture and sense of community.

What will they think after a Vermont winter?

While we wait to see the impact the influx of younger, gainfully employed people will have on our economy, we all wonder - will this stick? There are a couple of factors to consider. The same UVM report found that new Vermonters are equally split whether they are likely to stay or leave. 30% of respondents noted they weren't sure, 35% likely to stay, and a 36% likely to leave. 

We might be a year or two away from going back to the way things were. Even though new residents feel they're likely to stay, will their employers feel the same way about working remotely in a few years? Early on in the pandemic, Twitter announced that it would embrace remote work forever. The company predicts at least half of its workforce will remain home. Other large companies like REI and Facebook are making similar moves to weave remote work into their organization's fabric.

But many feel that people and companies will start to crave the socialization and networking that a traditional office affords. There's also the work-life balance to consider as the line blurs when you work from home. A study released by JLL Research shows that 74% of those surveyed prefer to return to the office in some capacity. This makes us wonder if we might see our population return to the status quo in the next year or two as families return to the suburbs. 

Only time will tell. 

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